The most-traded BC copper contract bottomed out during the night session and surged strongly during the day, closing up 1.19% [SMM BC Copper Review]

The most-traded BC copper 2510 contract opened at 71,260 yuan/mt today and closed higher. During the night session, BC copper initially fluctuated downward, touching a low of 71,140 yuan/mt, after which copper prices gradually shifted upward. After the daytime session opened, copper prices continued to rise, approaching the session’s end and reaching a high of 72,140 yuan/mt, eventually closing at 72,030 yuan/mt, up 1.19%. Open interest reached 4,847 lots, an increase of 469 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 4,506 lots. On the macro front, the US unadjusted CPI year-on-year for August came in at 2.9%, hitting the highest level since January this year and exceeding market expectations, though core CPI remained stable. The job market continued to show weakness, with initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 climbing to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years. Following the release of this data, market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the US Fed intensified, with expectations now fully pricing in three interest rate cuts by the end of 2025. On the fundamentals side, supply from mainstream brands remained tight, and expectations for subsequent arrivals of imported copper weakened, resulting in a slightly tense overall supply landscape. Demand side, downstream enterprises mainly engaged in just-in-time procurement on Friday, but copper prices fluctuating at highs somewhat dampened overall procurement sentiment, leading to weak purchasing enthusiasm.

SHFE copper contract 2510 closed at 81,060 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2510 contract price of 72,030 yuan/mt, its after-tax price would be 81,393 yuan/mt, resulting in a price spread of -333 between SHFE copper 2510 and the BC copper contract. The spread remained inverted and narrowed compared to the previous day.